John Shiffert Opines on

19 to 21…No, that’s not how many pitchers the Phillies are going to audition for Brett Myers’ spot in the rotation.

Two left-handed pitchers’ minor league records, at the point wherein they made their respective major league debuts…

W-L G IP H BB K ERA WHIP

A 14-4 35 195 114 72 273 1.42 .954

B 18-9 55 265 196 116 297 2.55 1.177

From reviewing just these numbers, it should be clear that, while both were excellent minor league pitchers, “A” was the better of the two. Not only did he have better control than the average young lefty, but he struck out almost four times as many batters as he walked, had a WHIP under one and allowed just 5.26 hits per nine innings. Furthermore, what these stats don’t show is that he gave up just two home runs in the minors (both to right-handed hitters) before his major league call-up, and that his only appearance in Triple A produced 36 strikeouts and one walk in 23 innings. It is also worth noting that “A” made his major league debut in May 2006 at the age of 22 years and four months, while “B” is making his debut tomorrow night at the age of 23 years, eight months – another indication that “A” is/was a relatively better prospect.

Both pitchers’ records were compiled during three minor league seasons, and parts of a fourth, and in the same organization, which might lead to some observant spectators to speculation as to why “A” averaged just nine games a year in the minors, especially since he was clearly a minor phenomenon. That’s because he’s Cole Hamels, the current NLCS and World Series MVP, and he spent most of his minor league career battling various injuries, certainly a lot more than he was battling the opposition. Hamels, if healthy, would have been in the majors well before May 12, 2006, when he overmatched Ken Griffey and the Reds as badly as he’d been overmatching minor league hitters.

At this point, Hamels’ developmental years are old news, except maybe in comparison to “B” who is, as noted, making his debut tomorrow night, pitching for the Phillies against the Padres. He’s Antonio Bastardo, and, if Hamels is the best pitching prospect to come out of the Phillies’ minor league system since Robin Roberts, then Bastardo may well be the best Phillies pitching prospect since, well, Cole Hamels. But, just how good is he? Projecting the future of 23 year-old left-handed pitchers is as risky (and maybe as foolish) a business as playing the lottery… to paraphrase that noted philosopher, Joaquin Andujar, you just never know what numbers will turn up.

This uncertainty is accentuated in Bastardo’s case by the fact that he was barely on the radar last year – Baseball America only rated him the Phillies’ 11th best prospect, which just goes to prove that; A) Baseball America isn’t always accurate in its ratings, and B) no one else is, either. This despite the fact that Bastardo went undefeated in 2007, running off a 10-0 record with a 2.14 ERA in A ball, striking out 110 in 97 innings and only allowing 68 hits. In 2009, Bastardo has managed to leap over Carlos Carrasco, Drew Carpenter, et al, to become the Phillies’ top prospect, going 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA split between Double A and Triple A…

W-L G IP H BB K ERA WHIP

2009 3-2 11 47 32 10 51 1.90 .887

His two Triple A starts haven’t been too bad, even though they don’t match Hamels’ three 2006 beat downs of International League competition; 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 12 Ks, 3Ws and 11 hits allowed in 13 innings.

Nonetheless, it is not fair to expect Bastardo to be the next Cole Hamels. First of all, as noted, he’s more than a year older than Hamels was when he made the majors – and Hamels would have been there sooner if not for his physical issues (some of which weren’t baseball-related.) Second, and maybe more importantly, Bastardo is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, a fastball and a change-up. That’s what Hamels came out of the minors with, but his change-up is in the Trevor Hoffman class, and he was in the process of picking up a killer curve ball as well, since very few pitchers can succeed on the major league level for long without a good breaking pitch of some kind. Think Al Orth, The Curveless Wonder of the turn of the last century who had a good change and a good spitter, Walter Johnson (he didn’t need a good curve), Satchel Paige, who, according to Bill Veeck, didn’t have a good curve until he was pitching for Miami in the minors in the mid-50s, and maybe a few others.

With Brett Myers out for the rest of the season, and the 2009 trading deadline still two months away, the Phillies have been linked with every conceivable starter who might be available, and even a few who aren’t (why would the Jays trade Roy Halladay or the Reds Aaron Harang?). And maybe they will indeed play Let’s Make a Deal. After all, they’ve swung mid-season deals for pitching help in each of the last three years – Jamie Moyer in 2006 (that turned out pretty well), Kyle Lohse in 2007 (everyone makes mistakes) and Joe Blanton, without whom they probably wouldn’t have won the World Series, in 2008. Note though that none of these deals was a blockbuster of the C.C. Sabathia caliber (though it continues to be rumored that they were second in the C.C. Sweepstakes last year), in all three cases, they were looking for incremental improvement. That may or may not be the case in 2009, when; A) they have a World Series trophy to defend, and B) they have one less year to win with the 28 to 30 year old nucleus of the current team. Given both those situations, it’s still possible that Bastardo may get several starts for the Phillies. And, it’s possible he may pitch pretty well. But it seems unlikely that he’s due for an extended stay in the Philadelphia rotation. He’s only 5-11, 170 pounds, his stuff is more like that of a reliever, he’s only made two starts above Double A, and he’s not Cole Hamels. But, then again, very few are, and it may be that the Phillies will shoot that high in the trade market.

Next up… are the 2009 Nationals really as bad as the 1962 Mets? And, why are really bad teams really bad?

-- John Shiffert

July 3 in Baseball History

2000 - The Red Sox beat the Twins‚ 11-8‚ hitting 4 HRs and scoring 9 runs in the 4th inning.

1992 - Cleveland sends washout speedster Alex Cole (.206 with 9 stolen bases) to the Pirates for Tony Mitchell and John Carter. For Cole‚ it is his 4th team in 3 years. He'll vacate Pittsburgh for the Rockies after the season.

1980 - Danny Thomas‚ 29‚ hangs himself in jail in Mobile while awaiting trial on charges of raping a 12-year-old. Thomas‚ who played with the Brewers in 1976-77‚ announced in spring training of '77 that he was a convert to the World Wide Church of God and would not play on Friday nights or Saturday afternoons.

1978 - At Fenway‚ Carl Yastrzemski strokes a run-scoring double in the 3rd‚ his 2‚800th career hit‚ as the Sox pummel the Yankees‚ 9-5. Yaz adds two singles in Boston's 12-hit attack‚ as Dennis Eckersley (9-2) tops Ed Figueroa. The win moves Boston ahead of 2nd place Milwaukee by 7 1/2 games with New York now trailing by 8 games.

1970 - In pregame ceremonies‚ California's Clyde Wright is inducted into the National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA) Hall of Fame for his pitching while at Carson-Newman College. He then hurls a no-hitter against Oakland‚ winning 4-0. Reggie Jackson's 400-foot shot to dead center in the 7th is caught.

1969 - At Los Angeles‚ Lee May hits a 2-run homer in the 11th and the Reds beat the Dodgers‚ 4-3. For May‚ second in the NL to McCovey (27) in dingers‚ it is his 23rd homer‚ matching his birth date and uniform number (his younger brother Carlos will also have his birth date as his uniform number) Granger‚ the 3rd Red pitcher in the 11th‚ stops the Dodger rally.

1959 - After giving up a grand slam to the A's Bob Cerv‚ Herb Score settles down and strikes out 14 in Cleveland's 8-4 win.

1935 - In the Giants 4-3 ten-inning loss to the Phils‚ Giants SS Dick Bartell has no fielding chances. Carl Hubbell is the loser.

1911 - At Philadelphia‚ the A's Frank Baker hits for the cycle in a 5-1 win over the Yankees in game 2 of a doubleheader.

1886 - Behind the pitching of Amos Alonzo Stagg‚ who will make his mark as a football coach‚ Yale beats Harvard in the deciding game of the college championship.

MORE