19to21: May 20, 2009

19 to 21: What Will Peavy Fetch?

John Shiffert

19 to 21…That’s about how many starts Jake Peavy will have for the Padres this year.

It should be pretty clear by now that the Padres aren’t going anywhere in 2009, unless maybe it’s to the San Diego Zoo to visit with the Kiwi birds (who, despite their name, do not use Kiwi Shoe Polish.) Less certain are the answers to the questions, is Jake Peavy going to be traded? And if so, at what price? As one of just three certifiable, front-line major league players based just north of Mexico, Peavy is likely to be more hyped than even the Swine Flu over the next couple of months. Without broadening the discussion to include the status red-hot Adrian Gonzalez (or closer Heath “Bar” Bell), it seems clear that the Padres must at least entail inquiries regarding the 2007 Cy Young/Pitcher’s Triple Crown winner if they want to have any reasonable chance of rebuilding their team.

So, what might San Diego expect in return for Peavy, given the fact that, at the moment, he leads the National League in losses? Given past histories, it seems unlikely that the Padres will get a bounteous return for the contract of a not-yet-28-year old ace. Why is that? Maybe it’s because that good pitchers, especially good, young pitchers, aren’t often traded in mid-season unless; A) they’re not having a particularly good year, and, B) their teams are having worse years. That’s a combination sure to lower the asking (and receiving) price for even an ace. However, when such a deal is made, voila, (that’s French, not the former Twins ace) the ace becomes an ace (or at least pitches a lot better) for his new team. This has happened in at least a half dozen cases dating back 25 years… in fact, it happened twice last year alone. C.C. Sabathia was 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA when the Indians traded him to the Brewers on July 7 for four minor leaguers. Joe Blanton was 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA when the Athletics traded him to the Phillies 10 days later for three minor leaguers. Look at the before and after 2009 records for both pitchers…

Sabathia

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

6-8 122 117 34 123 1.234 3.83 116

11-2 130 106 25 128 1.003 1.65 260

Blanton

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

5-12 127 145 35 62 1.417 4.96 82

4-0 71 66 10 28 1.373 4.20 104

A composite 15-2 mark plus two berths in the NLCS, plus a World Series title is a pretty good return on seven minor leaguers. It’s also worth noting that, at the time of their trades, Sabathia and Blanton were both 27, the same age as Peavy (who doesn’t turn 28 until May 31.) And while Blanton may not have been great in the regular season with the Phillies, he was better than he’d been with Oakland, and he went 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in the postseason.

Maybe the textbook case of this phenomenon comes from 1984, when Rick Sutcliffe was having a lousy year for those same Indians. One week before his 28th birthday, they shipped him, and a pretty good reliever (George Frazier) and a hard-hitting catcher (Ron Hassey) to the Cubs for two overrated outfielders (Mel Hall and Joe Carter) and two minor leaguers. Now, Hall and Carter were good major leaguers, but they were overrated, mainly because their primary offensive attribute was just to collect RBIs. Certainly, they weren’t worth Rick Sutcliffe, who led the Cubbies to a pair of postseason visits (after all, that’s all the Cubs do, visit the postseason, they don’t hang around for long) in 1984 and 1989.

Sutcliffe

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

4-5 94 111 46 58 1.664 5.15 80

16-1 150 123 39 155 1.078 2.69 144

Although Randy Johnson was a good bit older than Sutcliffe, Sabathia or Blanton, being six weeks short of his 35th birthday when he was traded on July 31, 1998, and he did bring the Mariners a better return from the Astros (Freddie Garcia, Carlos Guillen, John Halama), we’ll throw in his record as well, partly because it has since been proven (as he now approaches his 300th win) that the Big Unit was a young 34 in 1998.

Johnson

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

9-10 160 146 60 213 1.288 4.33 106

10-1 84 57 26 116 0.984 1.28 321

This trick can even work for relief pitchers. In fact, the Braves (that is, John Schuerholz) pulled it off twice, 14 years apart. When closer Juan Berenguer got hurt in August 1991, Schuerholz went out and got Alejandro Pena from (of all teams) the Mets for a short melody (aka, Tony Castillo and Joe Roa).

Pena

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

6-1 63 63 19 49 1.302 2.71 134

2-0 19 11 3 13 0.724 1.40 280

Needing a closer again in 2005 after Danny Kolb and Chris Reitsma both bombed, Schuerholz got Kyle Farnsworth from the Tigers for very little (Romon Colon and Zach Miner).

Farnsworth

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

1-1 43 29 20 55 1.148 2.32 184

0-0 27 15 7 32 0.805 1.98 214

Returning back to Peavy, he hasn’t really pitched all that bad. He is also leading the NL in strikeouts and starts and his WHIP isn’t much above his career norm. Here are his figures, first for 2009, and then for his entire career.

Peavy

W-L IP H BB K WHIP ERA ERA+

2-5 52 45 19 61 1.223 4.30 92

88-67 1313 1134 426 1317 1.188 3.29 119

The moral of the story? There’s at least a decent chance that some team needing starting pitching later this summer is going to get a pretty good pitcher for probably very little immediate return (maybe one or two of the Indians and/or Athletics seven minor leaguers will turn out to be a star), and, since all six of the pitchers previously noted did so, that Mr. Peavy may well led said team to the promised land of the postseason.

-- John Shiffert