Imagine the scene: It's late in the game, the starting pitcher's stamina is running down, but he's got two strikes on one of the game's greatest sluggers. He wants to be a part of history tonight because this could be his final opportunity. After all, you never know what tomorrow will bring. He wants to be a part of the historical and elite 3000 strikeout club.
So why isn't the crowd cheering him on?
The reason isn't because the 3000 strikeout club is getting overcrowded with members. In fact, just 12 pitchers in the history of baseball have surpassed the total. There are currently only a handful of pitchers who have any kind of realistic shot at reaching the figure.
No, this is a new 3000-strikeout club. One never thought imaginable. One for hitters.
Don't think it can happen? In the first 100 years of baseball only the great Walter Johnson struck out 3000 batters, reaching the previously unthinkable total in 1923. Johnson was alone in the club for more than 50 years until Bob Gibson became the second member of the 3000-strikeout club in 1974. Hall of Fame workhorses Cy Young, Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson didn't get there. Neither did fireballers Bob Feller, Lefty Grove or Sandy Koufax.
Few thought too many others would reach such lofty ground, but in the last 27 years, 10 other pitchers have joined the club with Nolan Ryan now heading the list with 5,714 K's, more than 2,200 ahead of the once thought to be unbreakable standard set by Johnson in the early years of the 20th century.
With pitchers racking up strikeouts at such amazing clips, somebody has to be on the other side of the statistic. Through the 2001 season, batters have reached 150 strikeouts 104 times in baseball history, none of which came before the first expansion of 1961. The figure was reached seven times in 2000 and 10 times this past season. A player reaching 200 strikeouts in a season is far from out of the question. Which begs the question: If the game's best players can hang on long enough to reach 3000 hits or 500 home runs, why can't 3000 strikeouts be an unfortunate side effort?
Bobby Bonds set the unfortunate single-season record in 1970 when he fanned 189 times. Various players including the Marlins' Preston Wilson, who struck out 187 times in 2000, have approached the record a few times in the past 15 years. Cleveland's Jim Thome and Milwaukee's Jose Hernandez also came close to setting a new standard this past season, each striking out 185 times.
Even with the outrageous amount of whiffs in the past few years, a batter reaching 3000 strikeouts in a career is something that may never take place. Since only one player has ever amassed even 2000 strikeouts (Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson), a player reaching 3000 seems unlikely at first glance. Of course, a player hitting 60 home runs in consecutive seasons seemed not only unlikely, but also impossible just a few short years ago.
While 3000 strikeouts is some time away, many other free swingers will soon join Jackson over the next 10 years in his 2000 strikeout club. Chicago White Sox slugger Jose Canseco and Sammy Sosa of the cross-town Cubs are close to 2000-strikeout locks. A handful of other players like San Francisco's Andres Galarraga and Fred McGriff of the Cubs are closing in on the figure as well. Others creeping up on 1500 strikeouts in the next few years are the Indians' Jim Thome, Tampa Bay's Greg Vaughn, Cincinnati's Ken Griffey Jr., and Arizona's Matt Williams. Heck, Mark McGwire, a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer retired this season with only 30 more hits than strikeouts.
Also, let's not forget the free-swinging youngsters that have just begun their promising careers like Wilson, the Angels' Troy Glaus, the Brewers' Richie Sexson, Ben Grieve of the Devil Rays' and the Phillies' Pat Burrell. All have already completed or came close to seasons of 150 or more strikeouts.
So what in the name of Joe Sewell is going on in the major leagues?
With less and less emphasis being placed on just making contact, many players don't mind swinging from their heels to mash a ball over the fence for an instant run. With a more compact swing many rallies could be started or continued, but the humiliation of piling up strikeouts just doesn't bother players as much as it once did.
However, before we start engraving the "Golden K" trophy with any names, there are a few things that don't favor any player ever reaching 3000 strikeouts. For one, if a player strikes out a lot, it is rather likely that his time in the majors will be limited or his at bats will be considerably reduced. More importantly, though, is that many young players simply struggle in their first few seasons of major league baseball and have an inordinate amount of strikeouts piled on their resumes while still learning their craft. Quality players, even the game's top young sluggers, will learn to adjust and watch their strikeout totals diminish as they log more time in the majors learning pitchers and other nuances of the game.
These reasons only make 3000 strikeouts unlikely, not impossible. If you told a baseball fan in the late-1950's that within 35 years a pitcher would strikeout more than 5000 batters he would have laughed out loud. He would then have you committed to an insane asylum if you told that same fan that the same pitcher would barely own a career winning percentage of .500.
So why can't the first 3000 strikeout player be a superstar, much the way Ryan enjoyed a Hall of Fame career with both positive and not-so positive records?
Some of the more likely players to reach the 3000-strikeout plateau are Sosa, Thome, and Glaus, all big-time power hitters. Sosa is just a few whiffs shy of surpassing 1700 career strikeouts after striking out 153 times during the 2001 season. At 33 years old, Sosa is within five or six more seasons of challenging Jackson's record of 2,597 strikeouts, which would leave him just a handful of strikeouts away from the newest 3000-strikeout club. Along the way, Sosa may hit 700 home runs, something that may make the sting of all those strikeouts subside.
Thome is two years younger than Sosa and currently has the benefit of playing in the American League, making his career potentially longer. Thome reached 1200 career strikeouts late in the 2001 season, nearly reaching the single-season strikeout mark on the way. Though it is unlikely his career will last long enough for him to reach Reggie's rarefied air, Thome's swing is more conducive to the K because of his significant uppercut. If Thome is closing in on 500 home runs near the end of his career, the Indians' slugger may post a few extra strikeouts to close in on 2500.
The biggest strikeout number may still come from a younger player like Glaus, who is just 25-years old with 515 strikeouts in less than 1900 career at bats. Glaus should be a consistent home run hitter and run producer for the next 12 to 15 years. During that time, should the attitude toward the strikeout not be altered, Glaus could easily average 150 strikeouts per season, placing him in Jackson's territory.
Besides Glaus, other young players have a chance to pile up depressing strikeout totals as well. Players on the rise like Philadelphia's Scott Rolen, Atlanta's Andruw Jones, and Grieve each have logged more major league time than Glaus and started the season similar in age and strikeout totals.
Grieve, the 1998 American League Rookie of the Year, has struggled since his breakout season and, like Glaus, is beyond the 500-strikeout mark already. Rolen, a year older than both Grieve and Glaus, ended the 2001 season with nearly 650 career strikeouts and Jones, the youngest of the group at a tender 24 years of age, passed 600 career K's. Jones is expected to improve his plate discipline over time, but his potentially lengthy career makes him a candidate for a very high strikeout total.
It isn't just the truly young players that strikeout consistently. Super run producers in their prime have apparently found the salve for the sting of the strikeout. Boston Red Sox slugger Manny Ramirez entered the season with 903 strikeouts at the age of 28, a pretty significant total. His 908 runs batted in during that time have made it easier for his managers to place him high in the lineup.
When he retired in 1935, Babe Ruth owned many of baseball's greatest records, and some of its worst. The Great Bambino hit 714 home runs, easily more than any other player in the history of the game at the time. He also had struck out 1,330 times. At the time no one ever thought either record would be bested. One player toppled his homer mark over the next 65 seasons. Over 60 players have since topped his strikeout record. It seems the more that players try to be like the Babe, the more they fail and, adversely, succeed.
» Tommy Szarka is a free-lance writer who longs for the simpler days of baseball. Look for an upcoming book to be released in 2002.
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Copyright © 2001 by Tommy Szarka. Posted December 6, 2001.
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