The Mariners are off to one of the best starts in history. People are surprised by this. I am shocked and decided to look over the team and see if they're for real or not.
The reason for the surprise (or shock) is that they have lost three of the biggest superstars in the game in the past three years: Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. They traded Randy and Junior and did get some things that are good in return but lost A-Rod to free-agency where they got a draft pick, i.e. nothing that is currently helping them.
Here are the current divisional standings in the A.L. West:
1. Mariners 52-14 ---
2. Angels 32-34 20
3. A's 32-34 20
4. Rangers 23-34 29
That's pretty amazing so let's look at their players and utilize what we see to figure out if they're really this good.
Starting Pitching Career ERA 2001 ERA
Paul Abbott 4.29 4.25
Fred Garcia 3.86 3.82
John Halama 4.73 4.71
Jamie Moyer 4.31 4.66
Aaron Sele 4.37 3.01
Analysis: The only pitcher in the group who is having an outstanding season is Sele. The rest are just pitching their norms which is a bit above average for the American League. It's highly questionable whether Sele can continue to do this all year. Some analysts are already pointing out danger signs because of his lack of strikeouts.
Relief Pitching Career ERA 2001 ERA
Kazuhiro Sasaki 3.07 2.90
Jeff Nelson 3.24 2.25
Arthur Rhodes 4.69 1.88
Analysis: Everyone has gotten better and it has evolved into a great bullpen. If you want to beat the Mariners, you'll need to do it within the first six innings or so. Sasaki is a great closer as was one in Japan. Nelson has been a major addition as a free-agent and is doing for the Mariners what he was doing for the Yankees. There are times when he looks absolutely unhittable. Rhodes is doing better than before but it isn't a "freak season" because he's always been touted as good as this because of his enormous potential based on great stuff.
Batters Career BA 2001 BA
Dan Wilson .263 .280
John Olerud .301 .335
Bret Boone .259 .323
Carlos Guillen .252 .240
Mark McLemore .259 .295
Al Martin .278 .189
Mike Cameron .250 .274
Edgar Martinez .320 .319
Ichiro Suzuki n.a. .350
Analysis: Wilson and Guillen are doing what's expected of them. Olerud is as well because he fluctuates from year to year and has had seasons like this before. Edgar is Edgar. A hitting machine. Martin used to be a pretty decent player but seems to have lost much of his skill (and yet, it hasn't hurt the Mariners much). Cameron has improved some but brings great defense and speed to the table as well. McLemore is playing somewhat better than usual. He's loaded with skill and may finally be putting it together.
Ichiro is as fantastic as he was said to be in Japan. He's on-pace to finish the season with these stats:
BA/ .350 R/ 150 Hits/ 265 HR/ 7 RBI/ 79 SB/ 57 2B/ 39 3B/ 15
He sets the table and puts fantastic speed on the bases for the hitters who follow him in the order. He makes a BIG difference!
Bret Boone is playing so far over his head it's silly. Besides the increase in batting average of 64 points, the rest of the numbers are ridiculous as we have just passed a third of the season and he already has 16 homers and 70 RBI's. His career highs (for a full season) are 24 homers and 95 RBI's. His batting average over the past six years is also around .250. Baseball people are trying to explain this surge in offense to his bulking up during the winter. I think not.
So are the Mariners good? Yes they are. But they are not a great team despite their great record. The reasons for their huge success?
-- They are perfectly adapted to their home field at Safeco. Artificial turf and deep alleys to the fences. They are a team built on speed and good fundamental hitting which is then supported by a fine defense.
-- The new crazy schedule which has them playing their lousy divisional foes more than anybody else.
-- The fact that they are in a division where the A's have been a huge disappointment, the Angels are going nowhere and the Rangers are the predictable losers because of the disastrous pitching they have.
-- An incomparable bullpen which shortens games to their advantage.
-- The perfect Safeco player in Ichiro, though his greatness would still be there no matter where he played.
The Future?
It is my belief that this juggernaut will slow down as the season progresses. They are too far ahead for any of the other teams to catch them. The A's are a good team but there is the possibility that their core will be dismantled by the July 31st trade deadline if they don't make a significant move by then. By the same token, it's possible the Mariners understand all that's cited above and will make a trade(s) that will help their team (Phil Nevin? Robin Ventura? Jose Cruz, Jr?).
Finally, it isn't a certainty that the Mariners will win the A.L. pennant, but if they do, they will run into a real problem against any N.L. team in the World Series as there will be no DH for a few games which will force Edgar unto the field (not a good thing) and, probably Olerud into leftfield (maybe a worse thing).
Hope Lou enjoys the ride for as long as it lasts!
Also by Michael Rapaport
» My All-Time Braves Team
» The New York Hype
» Where Do The Children Play?
» More submissions
Copyright © 2001 by Michael Rapaport. Posted July 19, 2001.
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