At the SABR Convention in Milwaukee last July, I presented an analysis of recent trends in Hall of Fame voting. I analyzed voting trends for the past six years and reached six conclusions. The voting this year did not follow these trends to the extent that was expected.
Here are the conclusions I reached along with an assessment as to whether they are still valid.
1. If a player is to be elected to the HOF by the Baseball Writers, he needs to get at least 200 votes the first time he is on the ballot.
This one may still prove to be valid. Gary Carter received an even 200 votes in his first year of eligibility in 1998. If this conclusion holds, it's good news for Andre Dawson who received 214 votes in his first appearance on the ballot this year.
2. In a year when a strong class becomes eligible (1999 - Ryan, Brett, Yount, Fisk), holdovers on the ballot lose significant support.
This is where the big surprise was. The incoming class this year was relatively weak, with only 3 players (Ozzie Smith, Dawson and Alan Trammel) receiving enough votes to remain on the ballot. No other first year candidates received more than 2 votes. Last year, nine holdover candidates picked up additional votes even though two first year candidates were elected. Yet this year, only three players (Carter, Bert Blyleven and Luis Tiant) received more votes than last year. Carter gained 80 votes in 1999, 86 more in 2000 but picked up only 9 more this year. He fell 11 short. Blyleven picked up only 3 more votes this year and is still far short of election. Tiant picked up 22 votes in his final year on the ballot but was still 269 votes short.
There appeared to be a drop in interest in this year's ballot. In 2001, 515 writers returned ballots, voting for an average of 6.33 players. This year, only 472 writers participated, voting for an average of 5.95 players.
The next two classes are considerably stronger which will make it difficult for holdover candidates to make it. Their best chance might be in 2005 when only Wade Boggs looks like a serious contender.
3. Gary Carter should be elected by the Baseball Writers in 2002.
I missed on this one. With the big gains he made in the last two years, he appeared to be a shoo-in this year.
4. Ozzie Smith, helped by the election of another defensive specialist, Bill Mazeroski, by the Veterans Committee should also be elected in 2002.
Finally, I had one right.
5. The Baseball Writers have, for the most part, failed to support the election of relief pitchers.
No change. Bruce Sutter dropped from 245 to 238 votes and Goose Gossage went from 228 to 203. Lee Smith comes on the ballot next year followed by Dennis Eckersley in 2004. My guess is that the voters will go for Eckersley but not Smith, the all-time saves leader.
6. The most overlooked player currently on the ballot is Bert Blyleven who ranks third all-time in strikeouts, 22nd in wins and 8th in games started.
Roger Clemens passed him in strikeouts this year and will probably pass him in wins in 2002. Randy Johnson will probably also pass him in strikeouts in 2002. However, I believe Blyleven has a strong case. The voters obviously don't agree with me, as he is 230 votes short.
The Board of Directors of the Hall of Fame changed the rules for election by the Veterans Committee last year. Jayson Stark suggested in a column this week that it might be time to change the rules for election by the Baseball, Writers. He proposed a shorter period for players to remain on the ballot, suggesting 5 years rather than 15, forcing the writers to make a decision much quicker as to whether or not a player is a Hall of Famer. This sounds like a reasonable idea and would eliminate the agony that players like Tony Perez and Carter have suffered through numerous elections.
» Bill Gilbert is a retired engineer who now likes to spend free time analyzing and writing about baseball. He has made presentations at the last 8 SABR Conventions.
Also by Bill Gilbert
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» More submissions
Copyright © 2002 by Bill Gilbert. Posted January 14, 2002.
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