Woe is me. I've given into the baseball analysis business with my own crude, unscientific fuzzy math method of judging the all time greats. Given the dark days ahead that loom over the national pastime due to scandal and the threat of another strike, it's a good way to pass the time when the game's lifebood is running thin. Or out, I should say.
Although I tend to be in the habit of discounting the usefulness of numbers to make the game more fun and interesting, the part of baseball mind games that intrigues me most is the use of stats to compare players. So I've come up with a layman formula that I believe settles issues of greatness once and for all.
With Teddy Ballgame's passing and Barry Ballgame's breaking records, there is a best hitter ever debate going that could use a stiff shot of logic beyond win or juice shares. I call it Runs & Bases Per Hit Average (R&BPH Ave.) And in this piece I will use the Sultan Of Swat Bambino himself, George Herman "Babe" Ruth as a career model to make my case. Since he heads the top of the list, I see no one more appropriate.
In order to grasp my theory herein, one first has to consider all hits -- slugging and for average -- where each base hit counts as a quarter of a run, a double half, triple three quarters and a yardbird a score or four bases. Then you add the sum in total bases and divide it by four to come up with a career run score figure. With my rounded off calculation, the Babe, who tops the list, has a total run production score of 1448.
Babe Ruth
1B X 1 1517
2B 506 X 2 = 1012
3B 136 X 3 = 408
+ HR 714 X 4 = 2856
-------------------
4 /5793 = 1448
Next his career at bats I divide by a factor of 3 for three reasons. For one, a player bats usually only once per inning, which equals 3 outs. Two, a player who gets a hit a third of the time is considered successful. And three, in an average game, 3 solid at bats are the median norm with one easy out giveaway. Note that I do not follow standard stat/data-smith procedure by using career batting average for the simple fact that the quality of pitching, equipment and changes in the game in different eras do not make this stat as functional and universally applicable as it would seem. In any event, Ruth, in a career spanning 22 years, batted 8399 times, which we divide by 3 to give us a rounded off and prorated inning total.
3 /8399 = 2800
To get his R&BPH Ave., we divide the run total by the number of at bats. The figure arrived at does not represent scoring per at bat or inning, but per hit. So one has to throw out unknown variables of actual innings played and treat career performance as a whole not summed up in parts. To do so, one must look at Ruth's career as being strung together as one long game where the Babe hit for 2800 innings straight.
2800 /1448 = .52
Use of a decimal system sets both a figure for percentage of a score and bases. If 1.00 is a run scored, then .52 equals a double, 2 of 4 bases or half a run scored per hit. This statistical reasoning makes Babe Ruth the only player in the history of baseball to average a double every time he got a hit, easily making him still to this day the greatest player who ever lived when you also take into account his pitching prowess.
My top ten list:
R&BPH Ave.
Babe Ruth .52 (2B half run ave.)
Ted Williams .48
Jimmie Foxx .46
Barry Bonds .44 (as of '01)
Mark McGwire .44
Joe DiMaggio .43
Hank Aaron .42
Willie Mays .42
Sammy Sosa .41 (as of '01)
Frank Robinson .40
Of course, my conclusions are subject to debate as some careers still in progress are not up to date and thus have ranks that are pending. Be that as it may, the R&BPH Ave. would seem to be a fair way of combining both hitting for average and slugging power to better overall gauge the plate prowess of a complete hitter. As always, Babe Ruth is still the yardstick. If he played today, he might hit 80 to 100 dingers. Indeed.
» Hank Festa is a 39-year-old freelance writer who resides in Los Angeles.
Also by Hank Festa
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» More submissions
Copyright © 2002 by Hank Festa. Posted July 18, 2002.
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