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Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? by Bill James Fireside, 1995 | Buy the book « 1|2|3|4|5|6 »

One of the most dependable patterns in Hall of Fame voting, both in the BBWAA vote and from the Veterans Committee, is that players who have big seasons are much more likely to be selected than are players of equal overall accomplishment, but greater consistency. Drysdale, who had 27 points in the Black Ink Test, had many more big seasons than Pappas, who had 5.

I could give countless examples to demonstrate this. It is an overstatement, but not much of one, to say that every marginal Hall of Famer in history had some big seasons with eye-catching numbers, while every marginal player who isn't in the Hall of Fame didn't have those big seasons. I'll give you four examples:

1. Jack Chesbro and Jesse Tannehill. Chesbro won 199 games in his career, lost 131. In his best season, 1903, he threw a wild pitch on the last day of the season that cost his team the pennant, and that made him one of the most famous big-game goats of the first 25 years of this century. He was selected to the Hall of Fame in 1946.

Jesse Tannehill, who was born in the same year as Chesbro (1874), was Chesbro's teammate for much of his career, first in Pittsburgh (1899-1902) and later with the New York Yankees, then called the Highlanders (1903). His career record (197-116) is very similar to Chesbro's (199-131), but distinctly better -- yet he is not in the Hall of Fame.

In fact, the four pitchers who were the Pirates' rotation when they won the National League in 1901 (Chesbro, Tannehill, Sam Leever and Deacon Phillippe) all had extremely similar career records.

Chesbro had probably the poorest career record of the four, Sam Leever the best, yet Chesbro is the only one who is in the Hall of Fame. Why?

You all know the answer. He had the big year.

2. Dazzy Vance and Lon Warneke. Dazzy Vance, a National League pitcher of the 1920s and 1930s, won 197 games in his career, lost 140. He's in the Hall of Fame.

Lon Warneke, a National League pitcher who came along a few years later and also threw very hard, won 193 games and lost only 121.

Warneke's record is a little better, but in 1955, when both pitchers were eligible, Vance drew 205 votes and was elected. Warneke didn't draw a vote. Why?

Vance had some monster years. He went 28-6 in 1924, led the league in ERA at 2.16 and struck out more men than any other two pitchers in the major leagues. He also went 22-9 in 1925, 22-10 in 1928 and in 1930, at the age of 39, led the National League in ERA.

Warneke had some good years, too -- 22-6, 22-10, 20-13 -- but just not quite at the same level. Big years get you in the Hall of Fame.

3. Roger Maris and Bob Allison. Bob Allison's career totals are very similar to Roger Maris's.

Neither Maris nor Allison is in the Hall of Fame yet, but Maris drew strong support, peaking at 176 to 184 votes each year from 1986 to 1988.

Bob Allison was the most feared baserunner of his time. He played center field when he first came up, played it well -- yet his vote total peaked at zero. Why?

You know the answer. Maris had the big year.

4. Ron Guidry and Sandy Koufax. You may be surprised to learn that Ron Guidry's career record is comparable to Sandy Koufax's.

Koufax's ERA is a little better, but half of that difference is created by league ERAs.

Koufax, of course, flew into the Hall of Fame because he was the dominant pitcher of his time, 1963-1966. Guidry had only one year of comparable dominance, and certainly cannot expect to sweep into the Hall of Fame as Koufax did.

Another example, which I won't use in the same way because I'm not sure what the Hall of Fame voters are going to do, is Don Sutton and Steve Carlton. Don Sutton, believe it or not, has a career record that is substantially similar to Steve Carlton's.

Steve Carlton had big seasons, and because of this he found the Hall of Fame door as open as Madonna's...uh, arms. He was elected on the first ballot when he became eligible in 1993. Sutton, who plodded along at an annual pace of 17 or 18 wins, will still provoke an argument despite his overwhelming credentials. Carlton scored 69 points on the Black Ink Test; Sutton scored at 8.

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